DEI vs MEI: Founder’s Success Rate Equation
I am not a fan of the institutionalized DEI, I believe you’ve just got to earn stuff. Yea, I sense a crucifixion with nails on the head and not even on the hands for this. But hear me out.
It hit home at 11 a.m. one day, interviewing with Kate, “a potential investor.” She cut straight: “I’m going to be frank; you’re smart, but you’re not South East Asian or white, didn’t attend an Ivy League, and don’t even live in the US.” Facts I knew for sure, but hearing them aloud rang louder than cathedral bells. That moment locked in me the challenges ahead and sparked a way to measure them.
I developed a set of linear equations to measure a founder’s success rates. Just to try optimizing my controllable variables and maximize my odds:
S = αR + βO + γN — μM
S(t) = (t)αR + (t)βO + (t)γN — μM (time-based outcomes)
Where:
S = Success rate
(t) = time in years
R = Resources (capital, skills, knowledge, energy, experience): 0–5 points
O = Opportunities (background, location, race, legal, market timing): 0–5 points
N = Network (team, mentors, investors, connections, community): 0–5 points
M = Missing factors (number of factors missing from each category)
α, β, γ, μ = Weighted coefficients: 0–3
Let’s dissect each category before I give scenarios.
Resources
Capital, energy, knowledge, skill, and experience: Outside or personal funding can go a long way in getting you off the ground. Opportunities easily slip away without the necessary skill set, knowledge, and capital. And if you lack energy, especially in the beginning, either the startup world isn’t for you or you haven’t found that problem worth chasing down the rabbit hole or a sector that piques your interest so much that you find problems in it to solve. I believe every founder who wants to succeed should have a high battery bar and a tremendous work ethic, as this can also influence the capital needed.
Opportunities
Here’s the meat of it.
Race/Gender: Touchy, but real. It’s no mystery that a Black founder stands less chance of building a successful company; VC funding in us is <2% per Crunchbase. Women? often considered not “leader enough” despite building lasting companies with unique perspectives. Their nurturing qualities have helped startups mitigate risks that might have otherwise crippled the company.; think risk mitigating backbones.
Stereotypes linger; some still push debunked low IQ myths about Black individuals especially of African descent, yet Nigerians have repeatedly proven their intellectual capabilities; from the Emegwealis to the Tope Awotonas. Marc Andreessen describes Nigerian immigrants as a “super smart cohort of people” who “way outperform” in the US. Still the system barely lets our passport near the stairs, forget the elevator.
Self-victimization: I’m including this under race because I’ve seen some Black individuals fall prey to it. There’s a tendency to quickly play the race card. We got to realize that if we’re stuck blaming and complaining, we’re not building. And this is not denying the game’s rigged. It’s playing smarter to win. The system played us 15–0 and pretended the match didn’t happen. Creating our leagues is important, but it shouldn’t be done from a victim mindset.
Background: Harvard, Stanford, MIT, Yale, Cambridge, Oxford, Imperial, ETH Zurich ; if you’ve walked those halls, doors swing open. It sure takes brains to get in, no doubt, but plenty of sharp minds can’t afford the price tag or get screened out by systemic biases.
Location/Legal: Environment can determine a lot; what you do, when you do it, why you do it, who you do it with and even how you do it. It’s one of the highest determining factors of one’s life, from career to spouse.
By age 7, I had already developed an interest in tearing apart toys for magnets. My curiosity flared; as I wanted to know how they functioned, why and how they made different sounds, ranging from car toys to telephones but breaking stuff wasn’t cheered(older now, I am more of a living lab and products tester lol). Later I hid with Shakespeare in toilets; safer than experimenting. My dad refused a double promotion and later made me repeat a school year, fearing I’d leap too fast. And by 17, when considering career paths, all I heard was “People like you either become doctors, engineers, or lawyers.” These are the prestigious careers for most African households. Had I known better, I would have tried dropping out lol.
An American child can easily change routes, chasing what they want due to cultural mindset and a very early age exposure to tech ecosystems. A founder in Silicon Valley has greater prospects than someone in Europe or Africa due to proximity to an ambitious tech scene; as ambitious people flourish when surrounded by other ambitious folks (paraphrasing Paul Graham). There’s also proximity to capital as Jeff Bezos said, “It’s only in the US a startup can raise $50 million with a 10% chance of a return,” highlighting the high disbursement of risk capital, supportive regulatory frameworks, etc.
Market Timing: It is very likely that if the market isn’t ready for your solution, it might affect your timeline for success. By “not ready,” I mean the technology may not be mature, its adoption hasn’t taken off, regulations and policies haven’t shifted to favour your market, or society hasn’t yet found reasons to shift from old systems to new ones (e.g., Airbnb took off because people had become accustomed to sharing things online via Facebook, eBay, etc.). These are what Mike Maples Jr. calls “inflections.”
Network
Team, mentors, connections, community, investors: I place tremendous importance on these because the right connections and teams can bring necessary resources and increase access to high-value opportunities. But I dread networking events , rarely worth it. Naval says they’re overrated “build something great, and your network finds you”. Half-true. For B2B, distribution I believe often hinges on who you know. It’s less about blanket schmoozing, more about industry-specific tribes that push you supersonic.
Scenarios Using My Linear Equations for Measuring Founders’ Success Rates
Scenario 1 (S = αR + βO + γN — μM): Black Refugee Founder in Spain
R:Capital=0, Skills=1(unrecognized), Energy=1, Knowledge=1, Experience=1
O:Race/Gender=0, Background=0, Location=0, Legal=0, Market Timing=1
N:Team=1, Investors=0, Mentors=0, Connections=0, Community=0
M= 9/15
α = 1, β = 3, γ = 1, μ = 1 (O-Heavy)
S = (1×4) + (3×1) + (1×1) — (1×9) = 8–9 = -1
Scenario 2: Black Refugee Founder in Silicon Valley (US)
R:Capital=0 (<2% funded Black founders), Skills=1, Energy=1 (SV demands it), Knowledge=1, Experience=1
O:Race/Gender=0, Background=0, Location=1, Legal=0, Market Timing=1
N:Team=1, Investors=0, Mentors=1, Connections=0.5, Community=0.5
M = 5/15
α = 2, β = 1, γ = 2, μ = 1 (R-Heavy)
S = (2×4) + (1×2) + (2×4) — (1×5) = 13
S(t) = (t)αR + (t)βO + (t)γN — μM (Time-Based Outcomes)
Spain(Time based)
T(0)
S(0) = (0×1×4) + (0×3×1) + (0×1×1) — (1×9) = -9
T(1; after 1 year)
S(1) = (1×1×4) + (1×3×1) + (1×1×1) — (1×9) = -1
T(2)
S(2) = (2×1×4) + (2×3×1) + (2×1×1) — (1×9) = 7
T(3)
S(3) = (3×1×4) + (3×3×1) + (3×1×1) — (1×9) = 15
Silicon Valley (US) Time-Based
T(0)
S(0) = (0×2×4) + (0×1×2) + (0×2×4) — (1×5) = -5
T(1; after one year)
S(1) = (1×2×4) + (1×1×2) + (1×2×4) — (1×5) = 13
T(2)
S(2) = (2×2×4) + (2×1×2) + (2×2×4) — (1×5) = 31
T(3)
S(3) = (3×2×4) + (3×1×2) + (3×2×4) — (1×5) = 49
FOOTNOTES
Analysis:
Location flips the script. Spain’s O-heavy because opportunities strangle everything else for the founder. I weighted O=3 there because it’s the make-or-break factor. Without a crack at the right network(difficult with different background and race) resources barely budge. Silicon Valley’s R-heavy because the founder leverages its opportunities and network to access resources-capital,energy; that pile up fast, so I set R’s weight at 2. Time compounds it; riding it out shrinks those gaps in Spain but rockets SV ahead. These are scenarios, scale it 10x, and SV’s edge explodes.
Looking at the numbers, the Black refugee founder in Spain crawls from -1 in year one to 15 by year three. In Silicon Valley, they’re at 13 in year one, 49 by year three. Perseverance pays, but location is the multiplier.
Contextual Bias:
I am Nigerian, hence the use of the country as an example. I grew up in a multicultural environment, moving to three countries before 16. My mother who is a microbiologist/biochemist and my father who excelled academically but couldn’t afford medical school instilled in me that hard-work is non-negotiable. The ages mentioned might be off by 1–2 years, and events may be polished due to memory bias (retrospective bias and confabulation).
Final Thoughts
Why MEI over DEI? Building’s my pulse, is all I desire, all I live for. A lab or small dim lit room (yea, I don’t like bright lights) with a bed to tinker away. Those 3 a.m. sparks, with a solution to a problem that had plagued me for days. It’s like being risen from the dead.
DEI(Diversity, Equity and Inclusion) strikes for the top but falls short. Black founders still scrape by with way less funding. Bias and the maze persists. MEI(Merit,Excellence and Intelligence) is not flawless; merit can favor the privileged but it bets on talent, not optics. Why prop up a charade, more talk than traction?
NB: I know success is a non linear architecture, luck and other factors come into play. This is more of a diagnostic tool and not a deterministic prediction, allowing founders to tweak coefficients based on their specific industry and personal situation.
Aside: I don’t sweat barriers – they fire me up, more folks to prove wrong. I’m just creating, having fun, bringing what I believe should exist to life, stopping will be like loosing breath.
My parents have played a huge role in my growth. They are among the best set of people in my life. They never forced me to study medicine; it was more subconscious. They’ve backed me as much as they can, and are warming up to my switch from scrubs to the founder path.
I’m open to correction. With new information and experiences, my perspectives on these topics may change over time. If you have any opposing viewpoints, I’d like to hear them.
Acknowledgment: Thanks to Grok and Grammarly for proofreading, editing, and research haha and Alexandr Wang for framing MEI(Merit Excellence Intelligence ) even though I will go with MEI(Merit Execution Intelligence ) because execution precedes Excellence.
